Random
The law of averages, if I have got this right, means that if six monkeys were thrown up in the air for long enough they would land on their tails about as often as they would land on their heads.
Maybe it is because I don’t fully grasp mathematics. Or maybe it is that I don’t often play the Texas lottery. But I caught the end of a news story that I don’t fully grasp.
The story reported that there might be a problem with the Texas Lottery game called Mega Millions. In this game, the number 1, 3, or 4 is randomly chosen as the “Megaplier.” If the winner of the lottery game also picked the correct megaplier, then the winnings are multiplied that many times.
The potential problem is that the number 2 has not appeared in the last 52 drawings.
I’m sure there is some statistical reasoning that explains why this should not be and why it worries the mathematical sort of folk. This is beyond me. My understanding is that each number has about a 33% chance of being chosen. I believe I have read that over a period of time, it is expected that there would be a similar distribution for each number. But if over a period of time, only the number 4 appears, isn’t that still random?
An excerpt from the play “Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead” by Tom Stoppard ó
After flipping coins seventy-six times and every one turning up heads, always in Rosencrantz’s favor, the following conversation begins:
Rosencrantz: Seventy-six-love.
Guildenstern: A weaker man might be moved to re-examine his faith, if in nothing else at least in the law of probability. (He slips a coin over his shoulder as he moves up stage.)
Rosencrantz: Heads.
Guildenstern (musing): The law of probability, it has been oddly asserted is something to do with the proposition that if six monkeys (he surprised himself)… if six monkeys were …
Rosencrantz: Game?
Guildenstern: Were they?
Rosencrantz: Are you?
Guildenstern (understanding): Game. (flips a coin.) The law of averages, if I have got this right, means that if six monkeys were thrown up in the air for long enough they would land on their tails about as often as they would land on their ó
Rosencrantz: Heads.